Did Washington reopen too soon? Numerous counties at risk of moving back to Phase 2 in April

When Gov. Jay Inslee first announced all counties in Washington would be moving to Phase 3, he commended people across the state for doing their part to stop the spread.

The move to allow counties to reopen most indoor places at 50%, Inslee said at the time, was “one more step in beating the virus and reopening our economy.”

But now, about three weeks later, the state is seeing a concerning rise in cases and hospitalizations and an increase in more infectious variants. Vaccinations — though helping, especially among older adults — have not been able to speed up fast enough to control the rapid spread.

More than a dozen counties in Washington are now at risk of having to move back a phase in the state’s reopening.

Inslee said Thursday he is concerned about several counties that may “be in a situation to go back to Phase 2.”

Fourteen counties in Washington aren't meeting the threshold for case rates to keep them in Phase 3, according to data from the Washington state Department of Health (DOH). Nine counties weren’t meeting the threshold for hospitalizations, according to incomplete data from the DOH. Incomplete data usually lags and has tended to be conservative throughout the pandemic.

In total, 17 counties are not meeting at least one of the metrics for Phase 3.

The case threshold for small counties — those with populations under 50,000 — is less than 100 cases per 100,000 over the past two weeks, while the threshold for large counties is fewer than 200 cases. Small counties must have less than three COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 over the past two weeks, while large counties must have less than five per 100,000.

Pierce County is one of the nine counties on the verge of stepping back from Phase 3, KOMO News reported Wednesday. As of Tuesday, it had the fourth-highest rate of cases over the past two weeks, and the second-highest rate among large counties. Kittitas County had the highest rate of cases in the state with 257.7 per 100,000, while Whitman County had the highest among large counties with 243.4 per 100,000.

Six counties — Douglas, Pierce, Yakima, Chelan, Stevens and Okanogan — were not meeting either Phase 3 requirement.

King County was on the cusp, but was still meeting the thresholds for both case rates and hospitalizations. According to the most recent data, the county was seeing a rate of about 184 new cases per 100,000 people over the previous 14 days, as of March 31. But, according to incomplete data, cases continue to rise in the following days. King County was seeing a rate of hospitalizations of about 3.8 at the end of March according to incomplete data.

Public health officials for weeks have been warning people not to let their guards down. Even as more people get vaccinated, the pandemic is not over. Still about 80% of Washington residents are not fully vaccinated, meaning the virus has plenty of opportunities to spread.

Inslee attributed the rise in cases to two key reasons: the increase of new variants that are thought to spread more quickly and easily across communities and the fact that people are easing up on safety protocols.

“We’re concerned that we all have been delighted by the daffodils and we’ve let down our guard to some degree,” Inslee said Thursday. “The more folks that aren’t wearing a mask, the more folks that aren’t socially distancing … letting our guard down is really really dangerous and we believe it is one of the reasons these numbers are increasing.”

A vast majority of adults 65 and older have been vaccinated, so many of the most vulnerable people across the community are protected from the virus. In recent weeks, the biggest increase in case rates has been among younger adults. Although people who are younger may be less likely to get a severely ill from the virus, they can still experience long-haul symptoms and spread it to others.

Inslee said the state was in a “critical moment” in the pandemic, and once again, called for people to do more to slow the spread of the virus.

Secretary of Health Umair Shah said Wednesday the state is at a “tipping point.”

“Ultimately, we know people are still experiencing COVID fatigue, that we want to be out of this pandemic, but none of us want to see a fourth wave,” he said. “Our behavior matters.”

That’s the key message from health officials: Everything people do matters, in determining whether the virus will continue to devastate the region, or if, through a combination of vaccinations and preventative measures, the state can get it under control.

“The vaccine is great, but if these numbers skyrocket,” Inslee said, “that vaccine is not going to bail us out.”

Counties that aren’t meeting both metrics:

• Douglas was at 242.9 cases and 7 hospitalizations per 100,000
• Pierce was at 235.6 cases and 5.3 hospitalizations per 100,000
• Yakima was at 207.5 cases and 6.6 hospitalizations per 100,000
• Chelan was at 206.6 cases and 5.1 hospitalizations per 100,000
• Stevens was at 122.9 cases and 13.2 hospitalizations per 100,000
• Okanogan was at 114.7 cases and 4.7 hospitalizations per 100,000

Counties that aren’t meeting one metric:

• Kittitas - Cases were at 257.7 per 100,000
• Whitman - Cases were at 243.4 cases per 100,000
• Cowlitz - Cases were at 214.8 cases per 100,000
• Adams - Cases were at 148.9 cases per 100,000
• Garfield - Cases were at 135.1 cases per 100,000
• Pend Oreille - Cases were at 131 cases per 100,000
• Ferry - Cases were at 114.9 cases per 100,000
• Asotin - Cases were at 106.6 cases per 100,000
• Lewis - Hospitalizations were at 8.8 per 100,000
• Mason - Hospitalizations were at 9.2 per 100,000
• San Juan - Hospitalizations were at 5.8 per 100,000