Washington is at a 'tipping point' as cases rise, vaccinations continue, health official warns

Washington is at a "tipping point" as coronavirus cases rise across the state, putting the state at risk of experiencing a fourth wave.

Even as vaccinations ramp up, about 80% of Washington residents are not yet fully vaccinated, making it important people continue to take steps to keep themselves and their communities safe.

People can't let their guards down yet, Secretary of Health Umair Shah said during a news briefing Wednesday.

"Ultimately, we know people are still experiencing COVID fatigue, that we want to be out of this pandemic, but none of us want to see a fourth wave. Our behavior matters," Shah said. "We're at a tipping point and everything we do matters."

According to the most recent complete data from the Department of Health, as of March 26, the state was seeing a rate of about 915 new cases per day over the previous seven days. Cases had been falling for several weeks starting in the beginning of January, but they they have since flattened and started to rise once again.

The most significant rises in cases are among younger adults, Shah said.

Hospitalizations are also flattening and starting to tick up. According to incomplete data as of April 5, the state was seeing a rate of about 43 hospitalizations per day over the previous seven days, up from the beginning of March, when there were about 33 hospitalizations per day.

All counties across the state moved to Phase 3 of the state's reopening plan last month, meaning most indoor places including restaurants and gyms could open at 50% capacity. To stay in Phase 3, counties need to meet a few key measurements based on case rates and hospitalizations. The state will reassess where each county stands, and counties could be moved back a phase starting next week if they are not meeting the measurements.

That looks likely, said Deputy Secretary of Health Lacy Fehrenbach.

"Unfortunately right now in our state, we're seeing an increase in disease activity," she said. "When we look at our data, there are a handful of counties that are sort of at the threshold or above the threshold for case rates or hospitalizations and there is a decent likelihood that a handful will potentially be moved back on Monday when we announce."

People in counties that have seen more significant rises in cases or hospitalizations in recent weeks and are concerned they will be moved back a phase should still do everything they can to get transmission down, she said.

"Every single choice we make, every single thing we do adds up and matters," Fehrenbach said. "The chains of transmission go on and so if you avoid infecting one or five people today, that makes a huge difference in the immediate term and the long term."

Vaccinations are helping to reduce cases and hospitalizations among older and more vulnerable adults who were more likely to experience severe illness from the virus, but everyone needs to continue to wear masks, socially distance and avoid large gatherings -- especially as the number of variants thought to spread more easily and quickly continue to grow across the region, health officials said.

"We know that all those preventative measures ... are absolutely critical. We also now that vaccine is a crucial tool, but vaccine is not our only tool. It is not enough by itself," Shah said. "We must use complimentary and effective measures for prevention to make sure we are doing everything we can to continue to protect Washingtonians."

According to the most recent data, Washington has given a total of about 3.7 million vaccine doses, which includes first and second doses. About 31% of people across the state have received at least one dose of the vaccine, and nearly 20% are fully vaccinated.

The state has been given an average of nearly 60,000 doses per day over the previous seven days, exceeding its goal of vaccinating 45,000 people per day. In a few recent days, the state has administered about 80,000 doses in a day.

Officials are encouraging everyone who is currently eligible to get the vaccine. "Don't hesitate, vaccinate," Shah repeated.

All three vaccines are safe and effective. Shah said officials are working to fight misinformation and do everything they can to get accurate information to communities across the state who may be hesitant to get the vaccine or who have language barriers.

In recent weeks, the state has expanded eligibility significantly, to essential workers and adults with comorbidities. By April 15, every adult 16 and older will be eligible for the vaccine. The state had been holding off on opening up eligibility to everyone to prioritize equity and make sure people who were at a higher risk had the chance to get their vaccinations first.

Even as vaccine supply increases, it is likely demand will continue to be higher than supply -- especially as far more people become eligible.

For the next few weeks, the state is expecting to receive just under 400,000 doses per week. But, the three week forecasts are estimates that could change, said SheAnne Allen, the COVID-19 Vaccine Director for the Department of Health. The state's allocation also doesn't include the additional doses that go directly to pharmacies through the Federal Retail Pharmacy Program or other programs.

Allen remained hopeful about the coming weeks.

"We are making amazing progress with our vaccine distribution and we're vaccinating tens of thousands of people every day," she said, but added: "The fight is not over, so please continue to wear your masks, wash your hands, watch your distance and get vaccinated as soon as you can."