Several counties in Washington, including King, are at risk of moving back to Phase 2 in May

Several counties across Washington, including King County, are at risk of moving back to Phase 2 of the state's reopening plan.

According to a recent analysis of the most recent complete data from the Washington State Department of Health, nearly a dozen of the counties still in Phase 3 were not meeting either metric on coronavirus cases or hospitalizations needed to remain in the third phase. More were exceeding the threshold for at least one of the metrics.

The state will reassess where each county stands and announce an update on Tuesday, May 4. Depending on where the metrics are, several counties could have to soon reduce capacity at restaurants, gyms and other indoor places back to 25% in line with the Phase 2 guidance.

Health officials have been warning for weeks the state is seeing the beginning of a fourth wave. Now, it appears that surge is continuing to rise.

"We know that our immunity across the state, whether it's because of infections or because of vaccinations is still not high enough that we are concerned about a fourth wave," Secretary of Health Umair Shah said during a news briefing this week. "And we absolutely know that the safety and preventative precautions need to continue for a bit longer so that we can continue to fight this pandemic."

All counties across Washington moved to Phase 3 of the state's reopening plan in late March. About three weeks later, when officials reevaluated the data, they announced three counties — Cowlitz, Pierce and Whitman — would be moving back to Phase 2. All of those three counties were still exceeding at least one of the metrics for Phase 3, according to the most recent complete data.

Pierce County was seeing a rate of about 365 new cases per 100,000 people over the 14 days prior to April 20 and about 4.7 new hospitalizations per 100,000 people in the seven days prior to April 17. However, according to incomplete data in the following days, hospitalizations continue to rise in the county. Cowlitz County was seeing a rate of about 346 cases per 100,000 people and 15.4 hospitalizations per 100,000 people. Whitman County had a rate of 269.4 cases and four hospitalizations per 100,000 people. 

To move back to Phase 2, counties have to exceed two metrics based on case rates and hospitalizations. 

The case threshold for small counties — those with populations under 50,000 — is less than 100 cases over the past two weeks, while the threshold for large counties is fewer than 200 cases per 100,000 people over the previous 14 days. Small counties must have less than three COVID-19 hospitalizations over the past week, while large counties must have less than five per 100,000 over the previous seven days.

The most recent complete data the Department of Health has available is for the period from April 7 to 20 for case rates and April 11 to April 17 for hospitalizations. The decisions on whether counties will be moved back will be made off of more recent data after the weekend, so metrics could change for some counties. 

The following counties in Phase 3 are now at or exceeding both metrics needed to stay in the third phase:

• Benton County was at 224.6 cases and 5.8 hospitalizations per 100,000.
• Franklin County was at 324.5 cases and 8.3 hospitalizations per 100,000.
• Grant County was at 252.7 cases and 7 hospitalizations per 100,000.
• King County was at 236.4 cases and 5.7 hospitalizations per 100,000.
• Kitsap County was at 224.5 cases and 5.1 hospitalizations per 100,000.
• Lewis County was at 203.1 cases and 10 hospitalizations per 100,000.
• Snohomish County was at 228.8 cases and 6.6 hospitalizations per 100,000.
• Spokane County was at 294.9 cases and 10.1 hospitalizations per 100,000.
• Stevens County was at 118 cases and 4 hospitalizations.
• Yakima County was at 249 cases and 5 hospitalizations per 100,000.

The significant number of counties at risk of moving back a phase reflects the rising number of cases and hospitalizations across the state.

According to the most recent complete data, the state was seeing a rate of about 246 new cases per 100,000 people over the previous 14 days. As of mid-March, the state was seeing a rate of about 125 new cases per 100,000 people over the previous 14 days. Hospitalizations were also trending up, at about 5.6 new hospitalizations per 100,000 people over the previous seven days as of April 17. Incomplete data in the days following show hospitalizations are continuing to rise. 

Even as vaccinations have been increasing in the state, a majority of people are not yet fully protected from the virus. On top of that, variants thought to be more infectious have been rapidly spreading in Washington. Officials estimated a majority of cases of the virus in the state are now of the B.1.1.7 variant, first identified in the U.K. That variant, Shah said, "spreads more easily and likely increases severity as well."

With indoor dining and gyms opened at a higher capacity, more people are also now interacting with one another, giving the virus more opportunities to spread. 

For weeks, officials have been urging people not to let their guards down. People need to continue wearing masks, social distance, avoid large gatherings and — as the weather gets warmer — take it outside. 

Until more people are fully protected from the virus, it will be able to continue to spread rapidly throughout the community. Even as a majority of older adults are vaccinated, younger people can still get severe illness from the virus.

"We have simultaneously a new weapon in the fight against this pandemic, mainly this incredibly safe and effective vaccine. Simultaneously we have effectively a new threat, a more powerful and dangerous threat," Gov. Jay Inslee said during a news conference Thursday. "And that's what I think we can call COVID 2.0. This is not your grandmother's COVID."

He warned the state would risk overwhelming the hospitals if the pandemic continued to trend in this way.

At the same time, officials are urging every adult to get vaccinated as soon as they can. There are thousands of open vaccine appointments in Seattle and King County for people who haven't yet signed up for a slot. Vaccines are a key tool to stopping the spread of the virus and allowing people to go back to more normal activities. 

"Vaccinations are working," Shah said earlier this week. "It's not just about people getting vaccinated but also helping their loved ones getting vaccinated ... vaccines really do provide a pathway to getting back to normal."