Northwest real estate experts: Inventory shortages the 'new normal'

October is usually a slower season for Northwest real estate, and 2019 is no exception. According to the most recent Northwest Multiple Listing Service, the active listings of homes (both single-family houses and condos) during the month of October totaled 14,379 — the lowest level since April.

While it's not unusual for the summer rush of "peak real estate" season to slow down a bit in the fall, October 2019 marks a a 10% drop from September, and a 21% drop from the same time last year. New listings also fell year-to-year and month-to-month in October.

And according to Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Northwest in Gig Harbor and member of the NWMLS board of directors, this is part of what some refer to as the "new normal" for Washington real estate.

"[Lower supply will] drive some buyers crazy as they keep expecting to gain the upper hand,” Beeson said, adding, “It’s not going to happen any time soon. The market has settled into a circadian rhythm of sorts.

RELATED: Even with the relatively rosy PNW lifestyle, home ownership is a hard sell for millennials

"People are moving here, home prices will continue to increase, inventory shortages will occur. That’s our future."

The numbers back up this idea: across the 23 counties of the NWMLS there was just 1.73 months of supply overall. Four-to-six months of supply is generally seen to be a healthy market according to analysts. By NWMLS's count, the last time supply of home and condos exceeded three months was February 2015, with a little more than 3.5 months of supply.

It's gotten so tight that Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain, says it's worth reconsidering how we frame the local market.

"The most recent data certainly appears to bolster the idea of a ‘new normal,’ as we see the same trends continuing,” Grady said. "Inventory is staying between 1.7 and 2.3 months and median sales prices are stabilizing ... Couple this with continuing positive economic news locally -- including a positive forecast for job creation, interest rates at all-time lows, and several new condo projects in the pipeline (instead of apartments) given the legislature’s change this year in the construction defects laws – all these point to a new definition of a ‘balanced market’ of only two months of inventory instead of 4-to-6 months.”

RELATED: Millennials will become the largest generation in 2019 -- so what happens to real estate?

Whether or not that holds true, analysts agree that the coming months will bring the standard winter slowdown.

“’Tis the season for the number of homes for sale to start dropping, and we don’t expect to see a significant influx of new inventory until spring," OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, said. "That said, there are still plenty of buyers out there, so this drop in listings will lead to increased competition and will likely cause home price growth to increase modestly through the end of the year.”

Click through the slideshow above to see some real estate listings around Puget Sound.