Has Washington reached the peak of its fourth COVID wave? It's too soon to say, health officials say

Coronavirus cases have started to flatten across Washington, but it's still too soon to say if the state has reached the peak of its fourth wave, officials said.

Case and hospitalization rates remain high in the state and officials estimate the majority of cases are now one of several variants that began circulating months ago, according to a report released Friday from the Washington State Department of Health. 

“We are cautiously optimistic about a possible plateau in the most recent data, but we are still in a fourth wave and seeing a number of concerning signs. DOH will continue monitoring these trends closely,” acting state health officer Scott Lindquist said in a news release.

“No matter what, we all need to keep taking precautions like wearing masks and gathering outside. If you haven’t been vaccinated, now is the time to protect yourself, your loved ones and your community. We can all help by talking to people we know about vaccination. Every vaccine makes a difference.”

According to the most recent complete data, as of April 29, the state was seeing a rate of about 250 new cases per 100,000 people over the previous 14 days. The incomplete data in the days following show cases falling, but that could change as the data becomes more complete.

"Statewide case counts showed some flattening starting in late April, but it’s still too early to tell whether this will continue," a news release from DOH said. "Case counts have remained high following increases in late March and most of April. As of April 22, case trends varied more from county to county than in previous weeks. Many counties were continuing to see increases at that time, but quite a few were experiencing flattening trends."

According to the report, more than three quarters of the cases now are likely of the B.1.1.7 variant. The P.1. variant is also spreading. Some variants of the virus are thought to spread more easily and could be more dangerous, officials have said.

As of April 26, the state was reporting an average of about 7.4 hospitalizations per 100,000 people over the previous seven days. Hospitalizations have been rising since March and remain high, but they have been flattening among older adults, the report said, likely due to the high rates of vaccinations among the older communities.

The most recent estimate of the effective reproductive number -- the number of people one person infected with the virus will spread it to -- was about 1.5, according to the report, but that was as of mid-April. That number also includes the impact of people's behavior, the spread of variants and immunity to the virus. For the spread of the virus to slow, that number needs to be below one. 

Officials are hopeful the state has turned a corner in its fourth wave -- but that still remains to be seen. 

Last week, Gov. Jay Inslee announced the state would take a two-week pause on its reopening plan, meaning no counties would be moved back or forward a phase. Once the two weeks are up, officials are expected to reevaluate where counties stand based on metrics of case rates and hospitalizations. That will determine which counties will move back to Phase 2 or Phase 1 and which ones will remain in the phase they are in.

Officials are also continuing to encourage every eligible adult to get vaccinated as soon as they can to slow the spread of the virus. According to the most recent data, about 55.6% of the eligible population 16 and older has received at least one dose of the vaccine and about 40.5% are fully vaccinated. That means still about 60% of the eligible population is not yet fully protected from the virus.