'No longer a five alarm fire': Coronavirus cases leveling off in King County; uncertainty remains

Coronavirus case rates are starting to level off in King County after rising for several weeks. 

Officials are hopeful the plateau could represent the peak of the fourth wave the state has been facing. But, that's not yet a sure thing.

"This week's forecast has unstable weather continuing, sun breaks possible late in the week," Jeff Duchin, of Public Health -- Seattle & King County said during a news briefing Friday. "Over the past two weeks, the increasing rates have leveled off for most ages ... This leveling off in case numbers and incidence rates are hopeful signs, although the immediate future direction remains uncertain."

King County this week surpassed 100,000 total coronavirus cases reported in the county since the outbreak was recognized.

According to the most recent data, King County over the past week saw a slight decrease in case counts compared to the previous week. Over the past week, the county saw an average of about 347 cases per day. About 117 King County residents were hospitalized over the past seven days due to the virus, down compared to the previous seven days, Duchin said.

The majority of the hospitalizations recently have been among adults 40-69 years old, reflecting the high rate of vaccinations among older adults. 

"The recent increased hospitalization rate trends in younger and middle aged adults are unchanged, while the overall risk for hospitalization remains higher for older rather than younger adults," Duchin said.

Even though the county's disease trajectory is showing some positive signs, both case counts and hospitalizations remain high -- and far above what they were at the end of the county's fall and winter surge. 

"The COVID-19 outbreak is no longer a five alarm fire, but it continues to burn and has not yet been extinguished," Duchin said. "At the moment, new cases of COVID-19 can still spark flare-ups that spread among unvaccinated people. We need to continue to fight this fire with multiple strategies: vaccines plus precautions."

This week, King County remained in Phase 3 of the state's reopening plan after Gov. Jay Inslee announced Tuesday the state would take a two-week pause, meaning no counties would be moved back or forward over that time period.

The decision to pause was made as the state has started to see a flattening in its case counts.

When the state reevaluates the data, officials will look at where counties stand at that point to decide whether to move counties backward or forward. Now, the vast majority of counties in Washington are in Phase 3, except for Pierce, Whitman, Cowlitz and Ferry counties, which are in Phase 2.

King County is still exceeding both metrics on case rates and hospitalizations needed to stay in the third phase of the reopening plan. The most recent data as of April 28 showed the county was seeing a rate of about 250 cases per 100,000 people over the previous 14 days -- over the threshold of 200 cases needed to stay in the third phase. The county was also seeing a rate of about 6.5 hospitalizations per 100,000 people over the seven days prior to April 25 -- above the threshold of five hospitalizations needed to stay in the third phase.

It's possible that could change as cases plateau or start to trend downward in the county and across the state. Incomplete data in the days following do show cases and hospitalizations decreasing.

"During this time, the quickest way to decrease cases and hospitalizations is through limiting indoor activities with unvaccinated people, continuing to wear face masks when indoors around unvaccinated people and when in crowds and ensuring good ventilation in workplaces, businesses, homes and wherever people gather indoors," Duchin said. "At the same time, the more people that are vaccinated, the less vulnerable we will be to future surges and severe outbreaks over time."

King County is continuing to vaccinate as many people as possible and officials are taking steps to make it easier for people to get vaccinations. About 67.5% of King County residents 16 and older have received at least one dose of the vaccine and about 45% are fully vaccinated. Vaccine supply has also increased, making it easier for people to get the vaccines -- even without appointments. 

People can now go to several clinics across Seattle and King County, along with Safeway and Albertsons pharmacies and CVS stores across the state, to get a vaccine with no advance appointment.

It's understandable, Duchin said, some people are hesitant about getting the vaccine and still have questions or concerns about it. 

"People should always understand why they get any medical treatment," he said. 

For people who aren't yet vaccinated and are still on the fence about whether they want to get the shot, Duchin offered a few factors for people to consider.

Even people who are younger could face serious illness and end up in the hospital due to the virus. If people don't get seriously ill, they could experience long-haul COVID-19 symptoms, which could last for months and includes trouble breathing, weakness, difficulty sleeping, fatigue and anxiety, Duchin said.

If people aren't worried about themselves getting sick, they should consider their family, friends and community, he said. People can unintentionally spread the virus even before they know they have it. Tens of thousands of people have weakened immune symptoms for a variety of reasons and might not be able to get protection from the vaccine. 

"They depend on the rest of us to decrease the spread of COVID-19 in the community," Duchin said. "So getting vaccinated is important not only for our own health, but for the health of our family members, friends, coworkers and our community and economy."

Duchin encouraged everyone to do everything they could to slow the spread of the virus and encourage people they know to get vaccinated.

"Our outbreak continues to smolder, but with increasing vaccination coverage, we will see a decrease in the risk of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths," Duchin said. "The end game with respect to the way the pandemic will play out over the coming months and years is not possible to predict with certainty."

The virus, Duchin said, likely won't "disappear suddenly, but gradually, likely with fits and starts over a period of years." 

"Vaccination is the most important thing we can do to reduce our risk now," he said, "and in the future."