Analysis: Will RB Chris Carson be with Seattle Seahawks beyond 2020?

Chris Carson is entering the biggest year of his NFL career.

And now he has new representation to help secure his future.

Octagon sports agency this week announced the Seattle Seahawks star running back as their newest client. Carson will be repped by Octagon NFL agents Murphy McGuire and Casey Muir. The rising fourth-year pro was previously with Dream Point Sports.

Octagon also represents Seahawks defensive tackle Poona Ford.

“Extremely excited to have @ccarson_32 apart of the Octagon Family,” McGuire tweeted. “Time to get to work!”

Carson’s change in representation comes as he enters the last year of his rookie contract. The 2017 seventh-round draft choice is currently eligible for an extension.

The Seahawks have a big decision to make with Carson, as he’s established himself as one of the elite running backs in football and embodies the pounding, aggressive running style that fuels Pete Carroll’s offensive approach. But Carson has also had durability issues, and he plays a position that has increasingly become devalued.

So will he get the kind of payday he wants?

Carson, who turns 26 in September, has posted consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons — making him just the sixth running back in Seahawks history to do so. He ranked fifth in the NFL last year with a career-high 1,230 rushing yards. In 2018, Carson was Seattle’s first 1,000-yard rusher since Marshawn Lynch in 2014.

The former Oklahoma State standout's 12 100-yard rushing games since ‘18 is second in the NFL to only the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliot. Carson has rushed for 2,381 yards and 16 touchdowns in the last two seasons combined.

In other words, Carson has earned a rich, multi-year deal with his production.

But there’s also this: Carson has landed on season-ending Injured Reserve twice in his first three seasons. He suffered a hip fracture in Week 16 last season that forced him to miss the regular-season finale and the playoffs. Carson played just four games as a rookie before a leg injury landed him on IR for the rest of the year.

Carson caught a break with the news his hip fracture from last season won’t require surgery. The Seahawks have said he should be ready by Week 1 of the 2020 season.

The star running back last week showed just how well his rehab is going, posting a video of himself workout:

What’s working against Carson, and his value in the Seahawks’ offense, is the many cautionary tales of big-money running backs. The failures have reinforced the notion of backs having small shelf lives, and the belief they’re more replaceable than other positions.

The Seahawks don’t have to look very far for paying a running back gone wrong.

The divisional-rival Rams made Todd Gurley the highest-paid running back in NFL history before the 2018 season, with a four-year, $60 million contract that included $45 million in guarantees. But he was hindered by an arthritic knee in LA’s run to the Super Bowl that ensuing season. His health continued to be questioned in 2019, as he posted a career low in rushing yards. The Rams released the three-time All-Pro selection this past March — less than two years after signing that record-setting deal.

Gurley is now with the Falcons, on a much more modest deal: one year, for a fully guaranteed $5.5 million.

Carson is a proven talent. But he still has so much to prove —  to the Seahawks and the rest of the NFL. In 2020 he needs to show more of what he’s already been: a capable 1,000-yard rusher with an aggressive running style. And he needs to show what he’s struggled with: durability. The negative label surrounding running backs will hang regardless.

Veteran running back Carlos Hyde, who the Seahawks signed this offseason to shore up their backfield depth, knows who RB1 in Seattle is. And Hyde is coming off a 1,000-yard rushing season of his own with the Texans, expecting to compete for snaps in Seattle.

“Personally, I don’t think there’s an open competition for the starting role,” Hyde told reporters over a Zoom call earlier this month. “I think  everybody knows who the starting running back is for Seattle. And that’s (Chris) Carson. I knew that before I even signed in Seattle that he was the guy.”

But will Carson be the Seahawks’ guy long term?

RELATED:

• Report: Seahawks have had discussions about signing WR Antonio Brown
• Report: Jets All-Pro safety would ‘welcome’ trade to Seattle Seahawks
• Reports: Ex-Seattle Seahawks WR Josh Gordon applies for reinstatement

Ben Arthur covers sports for SeattlePI. He can be reached by email at benjaminarthur@seattlepi.com. Follow him on twitter at @benyarthur.