3 Washington counties moving back to Phase 2 on April 16; reducing capacity to 25%

Three counties in Washington will be moving back to Phase 2 in the state's reopening plan after exceeding the thresholds needed to remain more fully open, state officials announced Monday.

The counties that will be moving back are Cowlitz, Pierce and Whitman, effective April 16.

Under the guidelines in Phase 2, restaurants, gyms and other indoor places must reduce their capacity 25%. In Phase 3, most indoor places could open at 50% capacity.

“These metric trends are driven by the virus and we must continue to do everything we can to sharpen our focus and keep COVID-19 activity down. We are so close to the end of the tunnel here — we have made tremendous progress and we must keep our focus,” Gov. Jay Inslee said in a statement. “It’s like a football game; we have done 95 yards on a 99 yard-drive. We can’t let up now. These are not punitive actions; they are to save lives and protect public health.”

Every county in Washington moved to Phase 3 on March 22. To stay in Phase 3, counties had to be meeting at least one of two metrics based on case rates and hospitalizations.

The case threshold for small counties — those with populations under 50,000 — is less than 100 cases per 100,000 over the past two weeks, while the threshold for large counties is fewer than 200 cases. Small counties must have less than three COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 over the past two weeks, while large counties must have less than five per 100,000.

According to an analysis, more than a dozen counties as of last week were not meeting at least one of the metrics needed to stay in Phase 3. But, last week, Inslee eased the requirements, making it so a county will only be moved back to Phase 2 if they are not meeting both metrics.

King County was not exceeding either threshold, but it has been trending in that direction, worrying health officials. Jeff Duchin of Public Health -- Seattle & King County said after the announcement Monday just because King County wasn't moving back doesn't mean people can relax on safety protocols.

"This is definitely not an 'all clear' signal.  We don’t stop wearing seatbelts just because we haven’t had a crash recently," Duchin tweeted. "We are MUCH closer to putting the worst of the pandemic behind us, but not quite out of danger yet. The potential for a severe surge in cases & hospitalizations remains real until more of us are vaccinated."

The steps people take going forward will determine whether the county continues to see a rise in cases and hospitalizations, or if the the spread of the virus, instead, begins to slow again, Duchin said.

"For now, we’ve leveled off near the 'Phase 2' cutoffs - where we go next is up to us," Duchin tweeted.

Cases have been rising across Washington for several weeks. According to the most recent complete data from the Department of Health, the state was seeing a rate of more than 900 new cases per day on average over the previous seven days. Hospitalizations have also been rising, as have new variants thought to spread more easily and quickly.

Public health officials have been warning about the rise in cases and hospitalizations for weeks.

“We’re concerned that we all have been delighted by the daffodils and we’ve let down our guard to some degree,” Inslee said during a news conference Thursday. “The more folks that aren’t wearing a mask, the more folks that aren’t socially distancing … letting our guard down is really really dangerous and we believe it is one of the reasons these numbers are increasing.”

During a news briefing last week, Secretary of Health Umair Shah said the state was at a "tipping point."

"Ultimately, we know people are still experiencing COVID fatigue, that we want to be out of this pandemic, but none of us want to see a fourth wave. Our behavior matters," Shah said. "We're at a tipping point and everything we do matters."

Vaccinations have been ramping up, but not fast enough to stop the spread of the virus. According to the most recent data, the state has given a total of more than 4.1 million vaccinations, including first and second doses. So far, about 22% of people have been fully vaccinated and nearly 34% have received at least one dose. Still, that means about 80% of people across the state have not yet been fully vaccinated.

Until more people are vaccinated, health officials are urging people to do everything they can to slow the spread of the virus, including wearing masks, social distancing and avoiding large gatherings.

All counties will be evaluated again on May 3.