Report: 25% reduction in COVID-19 transmission could prevent thousands from getting virus

A 25% reduction in the rate of transmission of COVID-19 from social distancing measures in King and Snohomish counties could reduce the number of people who get infected with the virus by more than half, a report predicted.

The working paper -- from the Institute for Disease Modeling, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Institute -- predicted social distancing and other measures could have a huge impact on the number of people who are infected and die from the virus.

"Effective social distancing slows the growth rate of the epidemic, and very effective interventions may stop the continued exponential growth," the paper said.

If business continued as usual in King and Snohomish counties, the paper predicted 25,000 people would be infected with COVID-19 by April 7 and 80 people would die. Researchers predicted, if that were the case, the virus would eventually lead to 400 deaths from the infections caused through April 7.

But with a 25% reduction in the transmission, the number of estimated infections in the two counties by April 7 drops to 9,700 and the number of destined deaths drops to 160. With a 75% reduction, the number of predicted infections drops to 1,700 and the number of eventual deaths to just 30.

The paper said there is a "great deal of uncertainty" relating to the spread of the virus and how the current social distancing policies will impact its scale. But in Washington and across the country, officials are now taking unprecedented steps to try to slow the spread of the virus.

Gov. Jay Inslee on Wednesday announced a ban on events in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties with more than 250 people. Concerts and sporting events across the region have since been canceled or postponed. Several museums and restaurants in the area have also announced closures.

Inslee also asked that school districts prepare contingency plans for possible closures in the coming days.

Shortly after Inslee's announcement, several school districts across King County -- including Seattle Public Schools, which serves more than 50,000 students -- announced closures for a minimum of two weeks. Universities and colleges in the area have opted to move to online classes and companies across the region have asked employees who are able to work from home.

Public transportation, including King County Metro, and airlines have also put into place enhanced cleaning procedures in attempts to prevent the further spread of the virus.

So far in King County, there have been more than 200 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 20 deaths. Across the state, the number of confirmed cases surpasses 300.

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