Analysis: Who will be the next quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks?

Now that the Seattle Seahawks have agreed to trade star quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos for a massive package that includes picks and players, the question of who will replace Wilson is now Seattle’s biggest offseason challenge.

The Broncos gave up two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a fifth-round pick, along with tight end Noah Fant and defensive end Shelby Harris, to get Wilson. They also sent over quarterback Drew Lock, who played just three games last season when starter Teddy Bridgewater was unable to suit up.

The Broncos lost all three of those games. Was Lock's 0-3 record last year just a fluke? Probably not.

Lock has been mediocre at best since he entered the NFL in 2019. His record as a starter is 8-13, and he’s amassed just 4,740 passing yards and 25 touchdowns over the past three seasons. He's also thrown 20 interceptions during that time.

For comparison, Wilson threw for 9,950 yards and 72 touchdowns during his first three seasons. He threw more interceptions than Lock — 26 — but also scrambled for 1,877 yards. Lock has rushed for just 72 yards in his career.  

It might seem unfair to compare those two sets of stats. Wilson and Lock have vastly different builds and play styles, and Wilson played 27 more games in his first three seasons than Lock has (although I’d argue that speaks to Wilson’s competence as a player). But my point is this: Lock is not a viable replacement for Wilson.

Perennial second-string quarterback Geno Smith isn’t either. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent next week, and it’s unclear if his 1-2 record last season during Wilson’s absence — the lone win came against the worst team in the NFL — will be enough to land him a new contract. His recent arrest might also jeopardize his chances of remaining with the team.  

So, who is the best replacement for Wilson? 

Of all the quarterbacks thought to be currently on the market, the closest comp playerwise is probably Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. He throws a good deep ball and is a skilled rusher, but the 22 civil cases filed against him alleging sexual misconduct would make him a radioactive acquisition (for good reason).

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts have been floated as possibilities.

Garoppolo seems serviceable. He’s not exactly elite, but he can make plays and has proven himself capable of winning games. He’s the only quarterback being shopped right now who’s taken his team to a Super Bowl. However, given that possible potential, the Seahawks would likely have to beat out a heap of other teams —  including the Buccaneers, Colts, Lions, Panthers, Saints, Steelers and Texans — that may be looking for a change at the position.  

The Hurts suggestion is a confusing one. He’s young, but his play on the field has been just OK, and the Eagles haven’t really seemed eager to get rid of him. With 10 picks in the upcoming draft, including three first-rounders, the team’s focus appears to be on building around Hurts.

Eagles second-string quarterback Gardner Minshew is also getting a lot of buzz, given that he finished his collegiate career nearby at Washington State University. However, his comments about refusing to go to the bathroom generated more headlines last year than anything he did during his two games on the field.

Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings, Derek Carr of the Las Vegas Raiders and Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins are interesting options that some NFL talking heads have brought up as possible replacements. But all three represent a major step down, and the Seahawks would likely have to pay more than they’re worth to get them to Seattle.

Conversely, signal-callers such as Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Mitchell Trubisky and even Marcus Mariota have been brought up as options that the Seahawks could probably get for pennies. I don't have enough space to address the problems with those suggestions, so let’s move on.

If the Seahawks have truly entered rebuild mode — releasing All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner just hours after the Wilson news broke suggests they have — then the best option might be to look to the draft.

Of the handful of potential professional-caliber quarterbacks in this year’s draft class, most of the recent buzz has been about Malik Willis of Liberty University. What’s less clear is if the Seahawks could, or even should, get Willis with the overall No. 9 selection they got from the Broncos.

Some doubt Willis will be there by the ninth pick, while others say that’s too steep a price to pay for him. Those ascribing to the latter school of thought argue that the Seahawks should prioritize ancillary pieces this year and attempt to scoop up a quarterback in next year’s draft, which many think will have a better selection.

The takeaway here is that, whatever happens, the upcoming season will likely be rough for Seahawks fans. If you only started paying attention to the team during the Wilson era, you're probably unfamiliar with the collective pain the city felt during the 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 regular seasons. But I'm not sure the upcoming season will be as bad as some of those. 

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are one of the best wide receiver duos in the league, and Fant — the tight end the Seahawks are getting as part of the Wilson trade — is no slouch either. Running back Chris Carson has proved effective out of the backfield when he's healthy, and the team isn't without playmakers on the other side of the ball. Strong safety Jamal Adams, defensive end Carlos Dunlap and free safety Quandre Diggs, assuming the team re-signs him, could help keep the offense on the field. 

No matter who's under center next season, there's still room for optimism.