King County health official: The virus is spreading more quickly than we can vaccinate

Coronavirus cases across King County have been increasing for weeks, and health officials are voicing concerns about what looks like the start of a fourth wave.

Even as vaccinations have been ramping up across the state, people aren't being vaccinated fast enough to stop the rise in cases. Since the first dose was administered in Washington on Dec. 15, just under 18% of the state's population has been fully vaccinated.

"Vaccination ultimately will bring this pandemic under control and the impact of COVID-19 will decrease as more people are protected through vaccination," said Jeff Duchin, of Public Health — Seattle & King County, during a news briefing last week. "But at the moment, the virus is spreading more quickly than we can vaccinate. The threat is real and it remains serious."

Although cases and hospitalizations are rising, deaths in the county have continued to fall. In March, the state was seeing less than five deaths per day on average, according to the Washington state Department of Health. That's down significantly from the Dec. 8 average of 40 deaths per day.

Last week, King County saw an average of about 250 new cases per day, up about 26% from the week earlier and up nearly 80% from when cases began to rise once again in February. The highest rate of cases was among younger adults 18-24, Duchin said, but cases have been rising among most age groups. Adults 75 and older are seeing the lowest rate of cases and high rates of vaccination.

Hospitalizations are also increasing across the county, primarily among people 40 to 69 years old, but there have also been increases among other age groups. Hospitalizations are still much lower than what the county was seeing during most of the fall and winter surge, but the rate of hospitalizations has about doubled from early March.

"Although most of our oldest adults have been vaccinated, not everyone is vaccinated," Duchin said. "And when transmission increases in the community, the virus can still find its way to those who are most vulnerable and unprotected."

Over the past several weeks, there have been significant drops in the number of outbreaks associated with longterm care facilities, Duchin said. But, there have been increases in cases and outbreaks linked to childcare and K-12 school settings and youth sports leagues, along with non-healthcare work places and social events.

"Cases and hospitalizations are climbing at a steady pace and we don't have any indication that this trend will be leveling off soon," Duchin said. "We can't predict how big the surge will be or how long it will last, or exactly how much damage it will cause."

Duchin said the county needs to be prepared to continue to see an increase in cases and hospitalizations, as people engage in more activities and travel and more infectious strains spread in the community. Deaths may also increase, Duchin said, but likely to a lesser extent than in past waves — from early November through early February, the state was averaging over 10 deaths per day.

Vaccinations are increasing across the county as many more people become eligible to get their vaccinations. According to the most recent data, more than 700,000 people have received at least one dose of the vaccine, or nearly 40% of King County residents. Nearly 23% of people have been fully vaccinated. Among adults 75 and older, more than 90% have been vaccinated.  More than 80% of adults 65-74 have also received at least one dose.

By April 15, every adult 16 and older will be eligible to get the vaccine. Limited vaccine supply has continued to be a main challenge in getting the vaccine to everyone who is eligible and who wants it.

"Last week, I expressed concern about expanding eligibility if the vaccine supply is not adequate to avoid having newly eligible people who are at lower risk compete with those who are currently eligible, by virtue of increased risk or equity considerations," Duchin said. "Gov. Inslee has assured us the vaccine supply will be adequate to open eligibility to all on April 15."

There were about 300,000 people in the county who were eligible for the vaccine but haven't received it yet. The county estimated it will need just over 100,000 first doses each week ahead of April 15 to adequately meet that demand.

"We hope things continue to move in the right direction," Duchin said. "With whatever vaccine supply is available, however, now and going forward, we continue to focus on addressing barriers to vaccination and facilitating access to vaccine for those community members most impacted by COVID illness and death and most likely to experience barriers to securing appointments."

Until more people are vaccinated, people need to continue to take steps to slow the spread of the virus, including wearing masks, social distancing and avoiding large gatherings.